2012 Oil Trade Tips
With the holiday season quickly approaching, the new year will be here before you know it. There is no reason not to start getting prepared for your 2012 stock play plans. Analysts and traders are beginning to talk 2012, are you going to be ready? Irfan Chaudhry has a few suggestions for your oil trades for 2012.
Trading Suggestions & Ideas:
- Brent price may average US$101 per barrel in 2012 – which keeps GCC selling price well above their breakeven crude oil price – so strategic O/W on GCC (Saudi / Qatar)
- Brent futures will be firmly back warded and WTI will also tilt long end down which will make USO a profitable investment vehicle because of positive roll yield.
- Timing trades will outperform the secular trades in 2012 – as sentiment will fluctuate Best alpha generative equity long trade for 2012 will be buying on dips and selling on bumps of crude oil price (crude oil price as selling the equities).
- Best trade ideas may relate to contracting spread between Brent and WTI.
- Best energy complex trade idea in Q4 2011 is to bet on increase of refining margins from current of US$7.4 to US$10 per barrel by Q1 2012.
- Crude oil price will have a strong correlation to the equity markets (>0.6) and may serve as a lead for inflection points.
Take these tips into consideration. At least ponder them in the coming months. They are good points and worth some thought. They may lead you in a direction of success for 2012.
Quotes taken from report by Irfan Chaudhry, Read the entire article here.
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